West Coast waves getting bigger

This article, and one on the CBC last week, have been making news up north, but have gone virtually unnoticed in the press here. The science is showing change, no one can be totally sure why, but the results will be higher costs for us as taxpayers to protect roads and communities on the coast from wave action, especially at high tide.

2/8 Victoria Times Colonist
By Judith Lavoie, Victoria Times Colonist

VICTORIA — West Coast waves are getting bigger, meaning greater threats of flooding or coastal erosion during storms, according to a new study.

The research, using data from buoys that have been in place off the coast of Oregon since the 1970s, was published in the journal Coastal Engineering.

Scientists from Oregon State University and the Oregon Department of Geology and Mineral Industries found coastal waves have been increasing by about 2.5 centimetres a year and storm waves by 10 centimetres a year. The difference in storm waves translates to a three-metre rise from 30 years ago.

But the biggest difference will be seen in projected 100-year wave events, said Peter Ruggiero, assistant professor in the university’s department of geosciences and one of the study’s authors.

The highest waves might now reach 15 metres compared with 10 metres in 1996, the study said.

More at
http://www.vancouversun.com/technology/West+Coast+waves+getting+bigger+study/2538593/story.html

Warmest January on Record for Seattle (and probably us too)

Weather you agree that this is global warming or not, the ramifications for our source of water, the snowpack of the Olympics, is worrisome. As the globe (or areas of the globe) warms, that means that our snow pack is not as low (in elevation), nor as deep. Water is probably going to continue to be a huge concern for the west, and us.
—————————-
The National Weather Service says last month was the warmest January on record in Seattle, an average of 47 degrees.

That was about a half-degree warmer than the old record set in 2006. Seattle records go back to 1891.

Forecasters say the average daily high at Sea-Tac Airport was nearly 52 degrees, about 6 degrees above normal. The average low was the month was about 43, about 7 degrees above normal.

Bellingham also had its warmest January on record, averaging 45 degrees. And Olympia had its second-warmest January, averaging nearly 44 degrees.

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2010948491_apwawarmjanuary.html?syndication=rss

Upcoming Winter High Tides: A Preview of Future Sea Level Rise

Climate Updates
Upcoming Winter High Tides: A Preview of Future Sea Level Rise
Seasonal high tides occurring throughout the region early next week will provide a preview of what the state might expect to see on a more regular basis as a result of rising sea levels.

The region experienced seasonal high tides in early January. At that time, we asked you to take photos and send them in to us. We got some great shots and a few are represented here: http://www.ecy.wa.gov/climatechange/ipa_hightide.htm. Thank you to all of you who responded!

Now we have another opportunity to document these seasonal high tides. Those of you who happen to photograph the high tide events February 1 – 3 are invited to submit your images to the Washington State Department of Ecology. We are interested in using these images to help document the coastal impacts our state is likely to face with increasing frequency as sea levels continue to rise.

Images can be submitted via email to ‘ecologyoutreach@ecy.wa.gov’ – along with the date, time, and detailed location information. Please provide contact information if you’d like us to send you a release form for future publication of your photos. For more information, visit the Washington Department of Ecology blog:
http://ecologywa.blogspot.com/2010/01/grab-your-waders-and-your-camera-and.html

Land Trust sells Carbon Offsets

Both the PDN and the Leader carried stories this week about the deal the Jefferson County Land Trust and the Shorebank Enterprise Cascadia put together. In this deal, Shorebank will pay the Trust to grow trees and not cut them, to put carbon offsets into the air. While I’m not convinced that carbon offsets are going to make a great deal of difference if we don’t change coal and gasoline consumption, i.e. perhaps make electric cars so cheap by government tax breaks that people stop buying gas cars entirely, or additionally make mandatory changes to natural gas for coal fired plants as an interim , rapidly do-able project that could dramatically cut CO2 within 10 years.

But this is a good, local step. Let’s cheer any serious efforts to roll back the dangerous levels of CO2 in our atmosphere.

Article at the PDN

http://www.peninsuladailynews.com/article/20091223/news/312239992

Unfortunately the Leader did not put it’s article on line. If you need it, pick up a copy of the paper.

Support local journalism, subscribe to one of the above news papers.

Full story from the Land Trust at http://www.saveland.org/.

Fiddling while the planet warms. Latest news on the eve of Copenhagen.

Whether you believe that we are heating up the planet, or you believe that this is all ‘natural’, the facts are continuing to come in that we, globally and locally, are going to have to deal with the effects of global warming. Here’s the latest scorecard, and you better get out your tropical gear.  But to be clear, as ocean currents stall out due to the heating of the poles (which is one possible effect, and was seen on the east coast this summer), we are probably going to see colder winters that last a shorter period of time. So don’t assume that more snow means less global warming!  We are going to be paying for global warming whether we like it or not, because insurers are going to raise rates to deal with the increase in natural disasters. And if the U.S. can no longer grow wheat and corn, due to drought, there will be nowhere to hide.  What can you do? Get involved. Work to cut your emissions down, and demand that the politicians do more.

Here’s the story, edited for brevity. The whole story is linked at the bottom.

Warming’s impacts sped up, worsened since Kyoto

By SETH BORENSTEIN (AP) – 1 day ago WASHINGTON – Since the 1997 international accord to fight global warming, climate change has worsened and accelerated – beyond some of the grimmest of warnings made back then.

As the world has talked for a dozen years about what to do next, new ship passages opened through the once frozen summer sea ice of the Arctic. In Greenland and Antarctica, ice sheets have lost trillions of tons of ice. Mountain glaciers in Europe, South America, Asia and Africa are shrinking faster than before.

And it’s not just the frozen parts of the world that have felt the heat in the dozen years leading up to next month’s climate summit in Copenhagen:

_The world’s oceans have risen by about an inch and a half.

_Droughts and wildfires have turned more severe worldwide, from the U.S. West to Australia to the Sahel desert of North Africa.

_Species now in trouble because of changing climate include, not just the lumbering polar bear which has become a symbol of global warming, but also fragile butterflies, colorful frogs and entire stands of North American pine forests.

_Temperatures over the past 12 years are 0.4 of a degree warmer than the dozen years leading up to 1997.

Even the gloomiest climate models back in the 1990s didn’t forecast results quite this bad so fast.

“The latest science is telling us we are in more trouble than we thought,” said Janos Pasztor, climate adviser to UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon.

Officials from across the world will convene in Copenhagen next month to seek a follow-up pact, one that President Barack Obama says “has immediate operational effect … an important step forward in the effort to rally the world around a solution.”

The last effort didn’t quite get the anticipated results.The changes in the last 12 years that have the scientists most alarmed are happening in the Arctic with melting summer sea ice and around the world with the loss of key land-based ice masses.

It’s all happening far faster than predicted.  Back in 1997 “nobody in their wildest expectations,” would have forecast the dramatic sudden loss of summer sea ice in the Arctic that started about five years ago, Weaver said. From 1993 to 1997, sea ice would shrink on average in the summer to about 2.7 million square miles. The average for the last five years is less than 2 million square miles. What’s been lost is the size of Alaska.

The Colorado River reservoirs, major water suppliers for the U.S. West, were nearly full in 1999, but by 2007 half the water was gone after the region endured the worst multiyear drought in 100 years of record-keeping.

Insurance losses and blackouts have soared and experts say global warming is partly to blame.

The number of major U.S. weather-related blackouts from 2004-2008 were more than seven times higher than from 1993-1997, said Evan Mills, a staff scientist at the Lawrence Berkeley National Lab.

“The message on the science is that we know a lot more than we did in 1997 and it’s all negative,” said Eileen Claussen, president of the Pew Center on Global Climate Change. “Things are much worse than the models predicted.”

On the Net:

*     U.S. government’s 2009 report on

climate change impacts:

http://tinyurl.com/usimpacts

*     Intergovernmental Panel on

Climate Change 2007 report on changes already

observed: http://tinyurl.com/worldimpacts

*     United Nations Framework

Convention on Climate change: http://unfccc.int Copyright © 2009 The Associated Press. All rights reserved.

Whole story at:

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5hjrkevVWHdM8rWorsC2E8mUvBPzgD9C4NKU80

Bodega Bay (CA) scientists weigh impact of ocean acid levels on shellfish

Related to our threads on ocean acidification, and it’s possible impact on our multimillion dollar shellfish industry.
By BOB NORBERG <mailto:bob.norberg@pressdemocrat.com>
THE PRESS DEMOCRAT
9/6 Press Democrat

The danger from increasing levels of acid in the ocean, which could devastate California’s shellfish industry, is under investigation by Bodega Bay scientists.

It is painstaking work that requires the team to wade through knee-deep mud at Tomales Bay to collect native Olympic oysters and then raise their young in salt-water tanks under conditions that mimic climate change.

“Very little is known about how ocean acidification is unfolding, other than it is,” said Susan Williams, director of the Bodega Marine Laboratory, which is part of UC Davis. “We are already seeing dramatic effects.”

The evidence is seen in the dissolving shells of some mollusks and disappearing mussel beds. And researchers, with the backing of more than $4 million in University of California and federal funds, are trying to identify the long-term consequences of the ocean’s changing chemistry.

More at
http://www.pressdemocrat.com/article/20090906/articles/909069979

Water Footprint…the next issue

A relatively new field of concern, especially for those of us on the Peninsula, is that of water use. With the warming climate, our snowpacks are not lasting the same length of time, and of course, our drinking water comes from snowpack and rivers that are fed by that snow pack. An area of study is emerging that focuses on the use of water, both in the products we buy (did you know that one cup of coffee used 140 liters of water), and the use of water in our homes.  In this interview, done on Living On Earth, a weekly radio show on environmental issues, David Gellerman interviews first Derk Kuiper, who founded the Water Footprint Network (link on the left side of this page), along with Michael Kobori of Levi-Strauss (yes the jeans manufacturer), on how they are focusing on water use in the making of jeans.  It’s a good learning experience for kids to teach them to think about their water use. In PT, our monthly water bills come with a graph of our last 12 months of water use. We make tradeoffs every day in use of our watershed, given that our paper mill uses millions of gallons of water weekly to make it’s products.

Water Footprinting: http://www.loe.org/shows/segments.htm?programID=09-P13-00035&segmentID=2

CO2 output falling in US…good and bad news…

Given our last post about the movie “A Sea Change” I thought this appropriate for better understanding the issue. Apparently our recession is affecting CO2 output. Only problem is that millions are out of work due to industrial slowdown. However, as we recover from the recession, it will get worse again…From the U.S. Government energy stats office:

This Outlook begins reporting projected carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from fossil fuels, which fell by 3.2 percent in 2008.  We project CO2 emissions will decline by 5 percent this year with lower CO2 emissions from coal accounting for more than one-half of this decline.  Economic recovery next year and modest growth in energy consumption are expected to lead to a 0.7-percent increase in CO2 emissions.

Carbon Dioxide EmissionsThis Outlook introduces a short-term forecast of CO2 emissions from the consumption of the three fossil fuels: coal, natural gas, and petroleum. The economic downturn, combined with natural gas displacing some coal as a source of electricity generation, is projected to lead to a 5-percent decline in fossil-fuel-based CO2 emissions in 2009 (U.S. Carbon Dioxide Emissions Growth Chart).  We expect an improving economy to increase CO2 emissions from fossil fuels by 0.7 percent in 2010.

Petroleum CO2 Emissions. Petroleum CO2 emissions are expected to decline by 4 percent in 2009, primarily due to declines in transportation sector consumption.  Although we expect little change in CO2 emissions from motor gasoline during 2009, CO2 emissions from other transportation petroleum fuels, particularly jet fuel (a 9.8- percent decline in consumption), distillate fuel oil (an 8.2-percent decline), and residual fuel oil (a 6.3- percent decline), are expected to fall significantly.  CO2 emissions from petroleum in 2010 are projected to increase by 0.6 percent, which is lower than the 1.5-percent increase in total petroleum consumption primarily because of the continued growth in the biofuel share of the transportation fuel markets.

Coal CO2 Emissions. Fuel switching in the electric power sector and declines in industrial use are projected to lead to a 7.9-percent decline in coal-based CO2 emissions for 2009.  Increases in coal consumption, primarily in the electric power sector, are expected to lead to a 1.1-percent increase in coal CO2 emissions in 2010.

Natural Gas CO2 Emissions. Natural gas-based CO2 emissions are projected to decline by 2.3 percent in 2009 despite significant consumption increases in the electric power sector.  Natural gas consumption is expected to decline in 2009 for all other major sectors.  CO2 emissions from natural gas are expected to grow slightly in 2010 as natural gas consumption increases by 0.5 percent.

http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/contents.html

A Sea Change – Great movie on urgent subject

Tonight a crowd of about 100 attended the Port Townsend screening of “A Sea Change  – Imagine A World Without Fish”.  Producer Barbara Ettinger and film narrator, Sven Huseby were on hand to take questions afterwards. Here’s the film’s syopsis:

Imagine a world without fish: It seems inconceivable. But top scientists warn that such a catastrophe may in fact play out in coming generations unless widespread awareness is raised to stop ocean acidification.

A SEA CHANGE draws attention on this urgent but little-known crisis. It follows retired educator and concerned grandfather Sven Huseby back to stunning ancestral sites (Norway, Alaska, the Pacific Northwest) where he finds cutting-edge ocean research underway. His journey of self-discovery brings adventure, surprise and revelation to the hard science of acidification.

While the use of Sven as grandfather, and his charming grandson is a great storytelling technique, the most dramatic scene to me in the movie is showing the damage done to a tooth by simply exposing it to carbonated water, which is only slightly more acidic than seawater, and much less than Coke Cola. The tooth, rather rapidly, develops a massive split down the middle.  Could the acidity change be part of the problem we are starting to see in clamshells and clam spawn survival rates in Hood Canal?

The question was raised, “What can one do locally?”  Here’s some answers:

  • First, try and see the movie, to understand the scope of the problem. If you can’t, then search for information on the Internet. This web site will list sites that you can start with.
  • Write our state representatives, both locally (Lynn Kessler, Kevin Van de Wege, and James Hargrove), our governor, and David Dicks, of the Puget Sound Partnership, and demand action within the State to drive issues of CO2 pollution down. Let them know you care about this.
  • Write our federal representatives to let them know we care about this issue.
  • Support strong laws, such as the Shoreline Master Program locally to reduce runoff of pollutants into our Sound and Straits.
  • Drive less in gas powered cars!
  • Support a shift to solar, wind and tidal energy. This alone is a huge committment that can help immensely.
  • Take a look at http://www.aseachange.net/take-action-today.html to see what other things you can do.

Thanks again to the Marine Science Center for putting this movie on.

If you want the whole scientific version of this, you should check out the hour long video on YouTube from UCTV by Scripps Institute Marine Chemist as he rolls out the actual charts of hot spots, and deep issues.

Senator Murray Announces $9 Million in Clean Energy Recovery Funding for Diesel Conversions

This will help move us towards reducing carbon dioxide and other pollutants from older diesels. If you have a diesel truck or bus that might qualify, please contact Cascade Sierra Solutions at https://secure.cascadesierrasolutions.org/financing_options.php

U.S. Senator Patty Murray (D-WA) announced on August 27th, that the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has awarded a $9 million grant to Cascade Sierra Solutions to improve energy efficiency and reduce pollution in the Pacific Northwest. The funding comes from the SmartWay Clean Diesel Finance Program included in the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act.

“This grant will get high-emission vehicles off our roads, and it will make Washington state trucks more energy-efficient,” said Senator Patty Murray. “Investing in clean-energy will create jobs immediately, and it will help our families by reducing the costs of shipping goods.”

The $9 million grant will be used by Cascade Sierra solutions for revolving loan, lease or bond programs to replace older diesel trucks or upgrade them with clean, fuel saving technologies such as idle reduction equipment, fuel efficient tires and aerodynamic devices.

Purchasing a truck manufactured in 2007 or later can reduce diesel particulate emissions by 85% and Oxides of Nitrogen (NOx) by 25%. Trucks manufactured before 1994 can emit 100 times the amount of particulate matter and NOx that a new truck does.

Overall, the Recovery Act allotted $300 million for the National Clean Diesel Campaign (NCDC), $30 million of which will fund SmartWay Clean Diesel Finance Program grants.

As a senior member of the Senate committee overseeing Energy funding, Sen. Murray worked to ensure that investments in clean-energy technology were included in the Recovery Act.  Senator Murray voted to pass the Recovery Act on February 13th. The bill was signed into law by President Obama on February 17th.

NOAA: Warmest Global Ocean Surface Temperatures on Record for July

While many of the politicians fiddle while the world is burning, the stats just keep on coming in. It’s time to start really solving the fundamental problems causing this….namely greenhouse gases. Before we all fry.

August 14, 2009

The planet’s ocean surface temperature was the warmest on record for July, breaking the previous high mark established in 1998 according to an analysis by NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, N.C. The combined average global land and ocean surface temperature for July 2009 ranked fifth-warmest since world-wide records began in 1880.

Global Climate Statistics

  • The combined global land and ocean surface temperature for July 2009 was the fifth warmest on record, at 1.03 degrees F (0.57 degree C) above the 20th century average of 60.4 degrees F (15.8 degrees C).
  • The global ocean surface temperature for July 2009 was the warmest on record, 1.06 degrees F (0.59 degree C) above the 20th century average of 61.5 degrees F (16.4 degrees C). This broke the previous July record set in 1998. The July ocean surface temperature departure of 1.06 degrees F from the long-term average equals last month’s value, which was also a record.
  • The global land surface temperature for July 2009 was 0.92 degree F (0.51 degree C) above the 20th century average of 57.8 degrees F (14.3 degree C), and tied with 2003 as the ninth-warmest July on record.

More at http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2009/20090814_julyglobalstats.html

Movie on “World without Fish” at Wheeler Theater 9/2 at 7PM

The Port Townsend Marine Science Center (PTMSC) presents the Olympic Peninsula’s premiere of a feature-length documentary film called A Sea Change—Imagine a world without fish at the Wheeler Theatre in Fort Worden State Park on Wednesday, September 2, 2009 at 7 p.m.

“Not only are we excited to present the movie for the first time on the Peninsula, but we’ll also have the director and protagonist available to answer questions and discuss various elements of the film at its conclusion,” said Anne Murphy, executive director for the PTMSC. “I’m pleased to say this isn’t one of those ‘downer’ environmental movies, but rather has an uplifting and inspiring message. We hope you’ll join us.”

Event – Talk on Ocean GeoEngineering and Climate change – PTMSC 8.13 @7PM

Lecture:  “Ocean Geoengineering and Climate Change” by Richard Jahnke, Professor Emeritus, Skidaway Institute of Oceanography. Thursday, August 13, NHE 7pm.  $5 members/$7 non-members The presentation will provide an update on some of the critical measures of ocean climate change .